This paper examines the relationship between futures and spot prices for energy commodities. In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased predictor of subsequent spot prices and (2) whether futures prices are a good predictor of subsequent spot prices, in the crude oil,...

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while...

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while...

Stochastic coefficients models can provide accurate agricultural secto forecasts and useful policy analysis Coefficient variation may occur for many reasons including aggregating over micro units, omitting variable, using an incorrect functional form, and allowing for a dynamic economic theory...

In this final article of our three-part series, we demonstrate why stochastic coefficients models are well suited to predict future variables We analyze the forecasting problem and consider various criteria of prediction If a forecaster must choose one from among several coherent predictors,...

A general stochastic coefficients model developed by Swamy and Tinsley serves as a reference point for discussion in this second of a series of three articles Other well-known specifications are related to the model. The authors weigh the advantages and disadvantages of stochastic coefficients...

Many econometric analyses include dependent variables constrained to the interval between zero and 1 Under such conditions, simple regression procedures break down Several alternative stochastic models which avoid this problem can be defined depending on the assumed error structure Two...