This paper aims to assess the role of expectations as a determinant of the real price of natural gas. To measure expectations-driven speculative demand three approaches are followed, which are based respectively on using natural gas inventories consistently with the theory of storage (Kilian and...

Main description: In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest...

A frank assessment of economists’ blindness before the financial crash in 2007–2008 and what must be done to avert a sequel The failure of economists to anticipate the global financial crisis and mitigate the impact of the ensuing recession has spurred a public outcry. Economists are under...

In 1980, the iconoclastic economist Julian Simon challenged celebrity biologist Paul Ehrlich to a bet. Their wager on the future prices of five metals captured the public’s imagination as a test of coming prosperity or doom. Ehrlich, author of the landmark book The Population Bomb, predicted...

As the economic giants of Asia and elsewhere have awakened, Western leaders have increasingly struggled to maintain economic stability. The international financial crisis that began in 2007 is but one result of the emerging nations’ increased gravitational pull. In this vividly written and...

Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based on such predictions. This visionary book explores how institutions from legislatures to corporations might improve their predictions and arrive at...