Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

This study investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and cur-rency substitution in Nigeria, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.After accounting for the presence of structural breaks, evidence from the findingsshows that domestic interest rate and expected...

The objective of this paper is the joint application of two different methodological concepts for the detection of lead-lag relationships in economic time-series in order to investigate their consistency and their potential complementarity. The first methodology, a time domain analysis based on...