The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even...

This paper looks at the effect of monetary policy changes on asset prices in the foreign exchange and equity markets of Brazil and Korea. We were searching for evidence whether monetary policy tightening may have had (adverse) counterproductive effects on such asset markets. In common with other...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON), designed as a forecast tool and as a guide to advise monetarypolicy authorities in Colombia. In companion documents we...

Theory-consistent models have to be kept small to be tractable. If they are to forecast well, they have to condition on data that are unmodelled, noisy, patchy and about the future. Agents can also use these data to form their own expectations. In this paper we illustrate a scheme for jointly...

We show that the sensitivity of the real exchange rate to terms of trade shocks is greater the lower the elasticity of final and derived demand between domestic and imported items. We develop a novel Kalman filter-based method to estimate these key parameters for Colombia, taking account of...

Systemic risk among the network of international banking groups arises when financial stress threatens to criss-cross many national boundaries and expose imperfect international co-ordination. To assess this risk, we apply an information theoretic map equation due to Martin Rosvall and Carl...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...

Systemic risk among the network of international banking groups arises when financial stress threatens to crisscross many national boundaries and expose imperfect international coordination. To assess this risk, we consider three decades of data on the cross-border interbank market. We use...

Systemic risk among the network of international banking groups arises when financial stress threatens to crisscross many national boundaries and expose imperfect international coordination. To assess this risk, we use Rosvall and Bergstrom’s (PNAS, 2008, 1118-1123) information theoretic...