Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades...

David Goodstein outlines the approaching peak of oil drilling that is commonly referred to as Hubbert’s Peak. He notes that most of the energy used by humans, animals and plants is from the sun. This energy is stored in various forms including oil and coal. The exact amount of these forms...