It is often unclear whether time series displaying substantial persistence should be modelled as a vector autoregression in levels (perhaps with a trend term) or in differences. The impact of this decision on inference is examined here using Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the size and...

Credible inference requires attention to the possible fragility of the results (p-values for key hypothesis tests) to flaws in the model assumptions, notably including the validity of the instruments used. Past sensitivity analysis has mainly consisted of experimentation with alternative model...

Case, Quigley and Shiller (2013) distinguished and quantified two wealth effects in retail sales at the state level: One from wealth held as corporate stock and one from wealth held in the form of home ownership. Here we investigate how each of these wealth e¤ects varies by frequency that is,...

It is often unclear whether time series displaying substantial persistence should be modelled as a vector autoregression in levels (perhaps with a trend term) or in differences. The impact of this decision on inference is examined here using Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the size and...

A fundamental statistical test of serial independence is developed and applied to daily stock returns. Let <italic>x</italic> be the deviation of the daily return on a stock from its sample mean after any autocorrelation present has been removed. If <italic>x</italic> is serially independent, then the cumulative sum of <italic>x</italic> over...

Credible inference requires attention to the possible fragility of the results (p-values for key hypothesis tests) to flaws in the model assumptions, notably including the validity of any instruments used. Past sensitivity analysis has mainly consisted of experimentation with alternative model...

We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency de- pendence - i.e., allowing the central bank to respond differently to persistent innovations than to transitory innovations, in both the real-time unemployment rate and the real-time inflation rate. The estimation...