This paper analyzes and quantifies the idea of model risk in the environment of internal model building. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distribution and model risk in functional form. By the quantification of these concepts we analyze the impact of...

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cycle model. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscal stimulus slows down economic recovery from...

We set up a neoclassical growth model extended by a corporate sector, an investment and finance decision of firms, and a set of taxes on capital income. We provide analytical dynamic scoring of taxes on corporate income, dividends, capital gains, other private capital income, and depreciation...

We present a stochastic version of the single-level, multi-product dynamic lotsizing problem subject to a capacity constraint. A production schedule has to be determined for random demand so that expected costs are minimized and a constraint based on a new backlog-oriented -service-level measure...

Determining good parameter estimates in ESTAR models is known to be diffcult. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-called identifcation problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition function in relation to extreme parameter...

Previous research on optimal R& D subsidies has focussed on the long run. This paper characterizes the optimal time path of R& D subsidization in a semi- endogenous growth model, by exploiting a recently developed numerical method. Starting from the steady state under current R& D subsidization...

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk...