In this paper we apply a novel approach to identifying the qualitative judgement of the rating committee in sovereign credit ratings. We extend the traditional regression with new measures - sentiment and subjectivity scores - obtained by textual sentiment analysis methods. By using an ordered...

In this paper I develop a model that explains why credit rating agencies classify bonds into coarse categories. The optimal number of categories and their cutoffs are outcomes of profit maximization by a rating agency. The trade-off between the number of issuers that are willing to pay for a...

This paper examines the accuracy and timeliness of credit ratings in explaining the financial health of debt issuers over the recent financial crisis. Using annual financial statement data and macroeconomic indicators covering 2005-2013 for 2500 financial and non-financial institutions, this...

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when...

Small businesses have long relied upon banks to produce sufficient information to be able to profitably lend to them. In recent years information production has also taken place among information service bureaus, such as Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). There has been some evidence to suggest that...

This paper investigates the reaction of credit default swaps spreads to changes in rating class, outlook, and watchlist entries for sovereigns. We find a stronger response to negative outlook and watchlist changes than for actual rating class downgrades, which shows that negative outlook and...

We generalize the refinement ordering for well calibrated probability forecasters to the case were the debtors under consideration are not necessarily identical. This ordering is consistent with many well known skill scores used in practice. We also add an illustration using default predictions...

We find that large shareholders of Moody's (affiliated investors) abnormally decrease their stock ownerships in a firm before its downgrade by Moody's. This finding is stronger for informationally opaque stocks and active affiliated investors, significant only after Moody's initial public...

Our study documents the direct and spillover costs arising from the loss of reputation for credit rating agencies (CRAs). Credit ratings are essential for a well-functioning debt market, and the integrity of these ratings depends on the reputation of the CRAs. Using data from the unexpected...