The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951....

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to explore econometrically whether distributional...

To improve the management of tax compliance risks, tax administrations are increasingly seeking opportunities to enhance their access and use of data. For many years, there has been a worldwide trend to implement electronic fiscal reporting (also known as fiscalization) to achieve these aims....

In this paper, we present the most comprehensive estimates of China's government balance sheet to date. Based on these estimates, we show how major shifts in fiscal policy over the last two decades have shaped the health of the public sector prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that, at...

The paper looks into the puzzle of low household savings in three Southern European (SE3) countries - Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal. Building on the household saving drivers literature, we employ cross-country micro-level data and investigate the key saving patterns, examining their heterogeneity...

Since the pandemic, developments in the real estate market in Portugal suggest that housing vulnerabilities have increased. Rising living costs and interest rates are stretching household finances which could cause an increase in defaults or force households to cut back on consumption....

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the...

As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country's development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest...