The recent debate over monetary policy strategies concludes that monetary targeting in practice lead to very similar patterns of central bank behaviour. This raises the question why central banks insist on the strategies they use. In this paper, we develop an answer from political economy. After...

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within...

We respond to the challenge of explaining the Great Inflation by building a coherent framework in which both learning and uncertainty play a central role. At the heart of our story is a Federal Reserve that learns and then disregards the Phillips curve as in Sargent's Conquest of American...

This Paper describes a simple method for the calculation of second-order solutions to dynamic general equilibrium models. The method relies on standard linear solution procedures and does not require any new numerical algorithm. As an illustration, the method is used to derive a full...

This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean...

This paper is an attempt to provide an updated assessment of what we know and what do not know about the impact of monetary policy on the economy and what implications follow for the conduct of monetary policy in today's world. Firstly, we discuss the conditions under which monetary policy can...

In this paper we show that the delegation of monetary policy to an independent and more conservative central banker is an optimal policy in an international context with monetary spillovers between countries, even in the absence of time inconsistency (credibility) issues. We also study the...

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability, conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this Paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian...

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European economy in the next five years under alternative hypotheses concerning the growth of world demand, the European currency/USD exchange rate, and the monetary policy.