In this article, we forecast crude oil and natural gas spot prices at a daily frequency based on two classification techniques: artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark, we utilize an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) specification. We...

Exchanges rate markets exhibit correlation in the short run, but the issue is whether such correlation lingers over long periods of time, and under extreme events (i.e., either large appreciations or depreciations). In this paper, we analyze dependence between nominal exchange rates under...

In this article, we pursue to determine which mining firms have seen their stock returns become more sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices, over a time period predominated by the political turmoil caused by 9/11 and the subsequent invasion of Iraq. By resorting to wavelets and spatial...

There is an extensive literature on the determinants of capital structure for developed countries, but little has been said about emerging economies. This article analyzes the driving forces of capital structure in Chile for the period 1990-2002. We study aggregate leverage and interest-bearing...

Using monthly industrial sector data from January 1971 to March 2004, we test for business cycles convergence among the major APEC members: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, USA, and Canada. In addition, we examine the synchronization of business cycles among Australia, Japan, and South...

To date, there is no consensus about how frictions in the credit market affect the transmission of the monetary policy to the real economy. The traditional money channel states that when the Central Bank reduces its reserves, commercial banks are forced to reduce their demand for deposits. If...

This article looks at the determinants of liquidity premium of the term structure of interest rates. Based upon a very simple model, we show that liquidity premium is not necessarily positive, as usually believed. This point is illustrated empirically with Chilean data for the sample period...

Technological innovations have contributed over the years to an increasing stock of durable goods - those products that are not immediately consumed but provide a stream of services over a long period of time. Indeed, virtually every household in a modern economy owns a refrigerator, a personal...

For a sample of six countries with dirty/free float regimes over 1999-2002––the United States, Japan, the Czech Republic, Poland, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence on the euro. That is, whether an...

In this article, we formulate a time-scale decomposition of an international version of the CAPM that accounts for both market and exchange-rate risk. In addition, we derive an analytical formula for time-scale value at risk and marginal value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio. We apply our...