This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures. We interpret it as a risk premium, which, in part, could have been explained by means of a real-time US business cycle indicator, such as the degree of capacity utilization in manufacturing. This result is...

Amid the recent commodity price gyrations, policy makers have become increasingly concerned in assessing to what extent oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive...

This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil...

Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, in this paper I develop an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserves additions. The...

Der Preis für Rohöl hat sich seit der Jahrtausendwende erheblich erhöht. Für Deutschland wurde der Preisanstieg durch die Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar leicht gedämpft. Aus Sicht der Verbraucher macht sich der Ölpreisanstieg besonders deutlich an den Tankstellen bemerkbar....

Der Preis für Rohöl ist Anfang des Jahres 2016 noch einmal deutlich gesunken. Modellsimulationen zeigen, dass der größte positive Effekt beim Privaten Konsum zu erwarten ist. Untersucht wurde hierbei, welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte resultieren würden, wenn eine Revision des für das...

We study the joint movements of the returns on futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas. We model the leptokurtic behavior through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena (2004). Energy futures...

This paper studies the forecasting properties of linear GARCH models for closing-day futures prices on crude oil, first position, traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange from January 1995 to November 2005. In order to account for fat tails in the empirical distribution of the series, we...

GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified...

This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal...