The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the...

The war in Ukraine and the subsequent increase in energy and other commodity prices has dampened the economic outlook. There are increased downside risks to economic activity and there is also considerable uncertainty around any economic projections and how they may evolve in the future. This...

We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find little evidence from two US household surveys that people over-react to their beliefs about gasoline prices when formulating their forecasts about inflation, with much of the...

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables which contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors for...

Gemäß der Preisstatistik der Europäischen Kommission waren die Kraftstoffpreise in Österreich durchwegs höher als in den Nachbarländern. Die Preisdifferenz kann Standorts- aber auch wettbewerbsbedingt sein. Die Wettbewerbsintensität beeinflußt nicht nur das Preisniveau, sondern auch die...

Overall, the ECB managed monetary policy quite satisfactory in the first phase of EMU. Nevertheless, this paper asks whether monetary policy could not have been improved. In the last three years, Euroland was confronted with the first external shock. Oil prices increased considerably, leading to...

The shutdown measures implemented to fight the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a historic drop in crude oil prices, which implies existential challenges to countries depending on energy exports. The three largest crude oil exporters in Africa (Algeria, Angola and Nigeria) are - like numerous other...