The object of this paper is to highlight the contribution that a dual economy in the South as organizational asimmetry makes to the oil price rise process and its effects on welfare, first, when the North is Neoclassical, secondly, when the North behaves a la Taylor. The model shows that when...

Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource. A set of oil demand...

In this note, we consider the relationship between oil price volatility and firm returns for 560 firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Using daily time series data from 2000 to 2008, we find that oil price volatility increases firm returns for the majority of the firms in our sample.

We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of...

The present study deals with the nexus between oil price and Russia’s real exchange rate along different econometric methods (ARDL bounds testing approach, wavelet coherency and frequency domain through Breitung and Candelon’s (2006) technique). The obtained findings are highly suggestive of...

This paper examines the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and stock market in 11 OECD countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). Considering both world oil production and world oil prices to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of...

This study aims to introduce an ideal model for forecasting crude oil price volatility. For this purpose, the ‘predictability’ hypothesis was tested using the variance ratio test, BDS test and the chaos analysis. Structural analyses were also carried out to identify possible nonlinear...

Graph of the month Europe Brent Spot Price, fob per barrel, in current USD and euro and real year 2005 euro (p. 1) Opinion corner Russia-Ukraine conflict do Western sanctions have any effect? (by Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Michael Landesmann and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 2-6)...

During the past three decades the global oil market has seen significant price volatility. Literature to date has not analysed the cross-country effect of the recent episode of price instability. Previous studies have either not considered this period or have not utilised panel data techniques...

In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production, price level, and exchange rate of eight important industrialized countries, using a two-step approach based on a structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian (see American Economic Review,...