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An event study analysis is performed on consumer confidence around election times using an effective sample of 84 … incumbent party wins or loses. Consumer confidence is able to predict positively the probability of re-election of the incumbent …
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We first study theoretically how intergovernmental relations affect political budget cycles (PBCs) within federal countries, introducing a national incumbent that favors aligned districts in a model where discretionary fiscal policy is subject to credibility problems. Then we analyze Argentina's...
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federal election, all the major parties released platform documents outlining an array of policy positions to address short …
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during the 1985 - 2001 period. We find that in election years public expenditures increase, but revenues also do - a result … influence of party alignment between governors and president. Public expenditures in election years increase in aligned …
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