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The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy

Kurz, Mordecai; Jin, Hehui; Motolese, Maurizio - 2003

We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand not supply shocks. Using a competitive model with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298249

The boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 in an international perspective

Jonung, Lars; Schuknecht, Ludger; Tujula, Mika - 2005

This paper compares the boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 with the average boom-bust pattern in industrialized countries as calculated from an international sample for the period 1970-2002. Two clear conclusions emerge. First, the Finnish-Swedish experience is much more volatile...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298327

The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis

Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Pugsley, Benjamin - 2006

This paper studies a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations in an environment of low interest rates and deflationary pressures. We show that small changes in the public's beliefs about the future inflation target of the government can lead to large swings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298355

Identifying the role of labor markets for monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model

Christoffel, Kai; Kuester, Keith; Linzert, Tobias - 2006

We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298356

Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining

Gertler, Mark; Trigari, Antonella - 2006

A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298358

Sticky prices and monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated US data

Boivin, Jean; Giannoni, Marc P.; Mihov, Ilian - 2006

This paper uses factor-augmented vector autoregressions (FAVAR) estimated using a large data set to disentangle fluctuations in disaggregated consumer and producer prices which are due to macroeconomic factors from those due to sectorial conditions. This allows us to provide consistent estimates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298363

A direct test of the buffer-stock model of saving

Jappelli, Tullio; Padula, Mario; Pistaferri, Luigi - 2007

Recent models with liquidity constraints and impatience emphasize that consumers use savings to buffer income fluctuations. When wealth is below an optimal target, consumers try to increase their buffer stock of wealth by saving more. When it is above target, they increase consumption. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298378

Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2007

Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Oskamp, Frank; Sander, Birgit; … - 2007

Europa in der Konjunktur deutlich sichtbar werden. - [Konjunktur im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands bleibt aufwärts gerichtet …, wenn die Steuersätze wie geplant gesenkt werden. - [Lohnanstieg und Konjunktur in Deutschland 2004-2008] Modellrechnungen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298439

Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2007

Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Oskamp, Frank; Sander, Birgit; … - 2007

[Weltwirtschaft expandiert nur wenig verlangsamt] Die Weltkonjunktur war auch in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2007 deutlich aufwärts gerichtet. Ein Ende des kräftigen weltwirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs ist nach wie vor nicht in Sicht. Wir haben unsere Prognose für das Wachstum der...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298440

Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2007

Dovern, Jonas; Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - 2007

zurzeit allerdings durch die Probleme an den internationalen Finanzmärkten überschattet. Die Risiken für die Konjunktur haben … gerichtet. Dabei ist nach wie vor der private Konsum eine Stütze der Konjunktur. Vor allem weil der Produktionsanstieg im … Konjunktur: Aufschwungskräfte behalten die Oberhand] Die konjunkturelle Expansion in Deutschland hat sich abgeschwächt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298441