This paper studies a model of strategic communication by an informed and upwardly biased sender to one or more receivers. Applications include situations in which (i) it is costly for the sender to misrepresent information, due to legal, technological, or moral constraints, or (ii) receivers may...

We analyze in a two-phase model the optimal mix of ex ante experimentation and ex post learning for the dynamic adoption of activities with uncertain payoffs. In a first pre-introduction phase, costly experimentation is undertaken to decide whether to adopt the activity or abandon...

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S....