This paper analyzes the firm's choice between serving a foreign market through exports or foreign affiliate sales in an environment characterized by country speci c shocks to the cost of production. Our model predicts that country pairs with less correlated output fluctuations trade more,...

The levels of foreign investment globally have increased at a rapid pace during recent years. However valuing these investments is complex and involves additional risks. We argue that foreign investment opportunities can often be best structured as a series of investment options, and thus the...

The underlying model analyzes the first time foreign market entry decision of a representative investor who can choose between export and FDI. The model combines the proximity-concentration trade-off framework with the real option methodology and sheds light on the effects of productivity...

This paper investigates whether "trade policy uncertainty" (TPU), even absent changes in actual policy, may have an adverse effect on foreign direct investment. The paper focuses on the case of Mexico, where we observe a plausibly sharp and exogenous increase in TPU vis-à-vis a large trading...