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Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey

Lux, Thomas - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 72 (2009) 2, pp. 638-655

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003907601

Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

This paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes … with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of … approach can be used to estimate the parameters of the opinion formation process from aggregate data on its average realization …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003721492

Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey

Stolzenburg, Ulrich; Lux, Thomas - 2010

Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of highly influential agents acting as ‘opinion … in Germany, we also compared experts’ predictions with the real economic development. The core members identified in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008758390

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Graefe, Andreas - 2014

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted from 1932 to 2012. Across the last 100 days prior to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065305

Interactive expectations

Flieth, Burkhard; Foster, John - In: Journal of evolutionary economics : JEE 12 (2002) 4, pp. 375-395

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001705732

Interactive expectations

Flieth, Burkhard - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013432503

Don’t tax me? : Determinants of individual attitudes toward progressive taxation

Heinemann, Friedrich; Hennighausen, Tanja - 2010

This contribution empirically analyses the individual determinants of tax rate preferences. For that purpose we make use of the representative German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) that offers data on the individual attitudes toward progressive, proportional, and regressive taxation. Our...