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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003714241
This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783841
Consider an economy in which the underlying security returns follow a linear factor model with constant coeffcients. While portfolios that invest in these securities willin general, have a linear factor structure, it will be one with time-varying coeffcients. However, under certain assumptions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012785228
This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012715939
This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamic mutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyze whether managers with market-timing ability can be identified ex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary least squares (OLS) timing models produce false...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012716163
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009749327
We explore the relationship between internal governance and the disciplining mechanisms created by the threat of short selling (i.e. “short-selling potential”). We argue that the presence of short selling increases the cost of agency problems for shareholders and incentivizes them to improve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014155851
We study how the presence of short sellers affects the incentives of the insiders to trade on negative information. We show it induces insiders to sell more (shares from their existing stakes) and trade faster to preempt the potential competition from short sellers. An experiment and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040595
Firms in global markets often belong to business groups. We argue that this feature can have a profound influence on international asset pricing. In bad times, business groups may strategically reallocate risk across affiliated firms to protect core “central firms.” This strategic behavior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219896
The mutual fund industry consists of heterogeneous managers and investors. Hence, traditional models of delegated portfolio management need to be extended to allow heterogeneity. We propose that this extension can be modeled as a dual matching-contracting problem of endogenously repeated trust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063553