Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed effects" and, in dynamic models, initial conditions. This...

We investigate how a cautious decision maker might aggregate various opinions of experts who face model misspecification. We first consider a more general case in which both the decision maker’s and experts’ preference relations are variational introduced by Maccheroni et al. (2006). We show...

Smooth mixtures, i.e. mixture models with covariate-dependent mixing weights, are very useful flexible models for conditional densities. Previous work shows that using too simple mixture components for modeling heteroscedastic and/or heavy tailed data can give a poor fit, even with a large...

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights. Building on the work of Ranjan and Gneiting (2010) and...

We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with various...

This textbook highlights the many practical uses of stable distributions, exploring the theory, numerical algorithms, and statistical methods used to work with stable laws. Because of the author's accessible and comprehensive approach, readers will be able to understand and use these methods....