This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed … analyze output gap revisions and assess the usefulness of these gaps in forecasting total CPI inflation and three newly … developed measures of core CPI inflation: CPI-median, CPI-trim and CPI-common. We also study whether labour-input gaps …

rule that stabilizes output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur … borrowers are occasionally over-optimistic, the central bank should be less responsive to inflation, more responsive to output …-bust cycles in house prices, but prolongs inflation target horizons due to weak policy reactions to inflation fluctuations after …