We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariance matrix of a multivariate interest...

Models of forward interest rates often use high-dimensional Brownian motions to capture imperfect correlations between near term and long term rates. Several statistical analyses suggest the practicality of using a simpler model. Principal component analyses reveal a pattern of correlations...