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This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities ("gilts") based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts' nominal yields. These models bring to light...
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use these to create hypothetical inflation-linked bond returns. We compare these with the return on actual inflation …-linked bond returns on a recent sample and find that surveys of professional forecasters and moving average models perform best …. We confirm these findings for a sample of 19 international inflation-linked bond markets. Using surveys of professional …
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