Emerging market economies often face sudden stops in capital inflows or reduced access to the international capital market. This paper analyzes what monetary policy should accomplish in such an event. Optimal monetary policy induces higher interest rates and exchange rate depreciation. The...

Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible...

One of the most striking macroeconomic phenomena in recent decades has been the achievement of rather low and more stable rates inflation in many countries in the nineties. Consequently, the main goal of this paper is to offer an overview of the main policy issues arising in a low inflation...

This paper is an attempt to provide an updated assessment of what we know and what do not know about the impact of monetary policy on the economy and what implications follow for the conduct of monetary policy in today's world. Firstly, we discuss the conditions under which monetary policy can...

In contemporary New Zealand, microeconomics is in the ascendant over macroeconomics, to such an extent that neither the Reserve Bank nor the Cabinet and Treasury appear to give much attention to shorter-run macroeconomic stabilization as a policy goal. This lecture examines why thoughtful New...