The Barometer presents on a monthly and quarterly basis the evolution of the Romanian economy, its state and trends, by the means of the main macroeconomic indicators and aggregates and brief economic analyses: GDP developments, industrial production, foreign trade, inflation, monetary...

The paper presents a high-frequency (monthly) forecast for six macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, monetary base, households’ savings and exchange rate.

As it is known in Romania, as well as in other transitional economies, the deepening of the social inequities has been accompanied by informal activities. The current paper attempts to reveal the existing relationships between the underground economy and poverty and the profile of the households...

The sustainable growth of economic competitiveness as a whole and of industry, in particular, is of paramount importance for Romania. A look at the literature reveals that although there is no consensus in defining and measuring competitiveness, many studies focus on competitiveness i) in a...

In this paper we discuss the credit policy and how it affected the macroeconomic dynamics in Romania. We estimate a regression on quarterly data in which economic growth is the dependant variable and foreign direct investments and domestic credit are the explanatory variable. We found...

The phenomenon of arrears is difficult to capture due to its complexity. In this context, the paper aims at providing a unified perspective on the phenomenon by building a picture of the network of arrears in Romania which reflects the relations between the main economic actors involved. The...

The paper analyzes the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania focusing on the exchange rate channel. The analysis is made in the context of an economy described by a mix of institutional and market behaviors illustrated by a SVAR model in which the restrictions imposed on the...

We live today in a changing society based on the globalization and better valorisation of the human capital. The human capital is the central driver force for competitiveness and development of the new technology and patent and a necessary factor for their efficient use in the new society. In...

The main aim of this article is to model the quarterly real money demand in Romania and to make short-run forecasts for 2014:Q1-2015:Q1. A vector-autoregressive model (VAR(1)) was built for stationary data series of real money demand, real GDP and spread between active and pasive interest rate...

The paper advances an original artificial intelligence-based mechanism for specific economic predictions. The aim is to forecast the exchange rate of euro versus the Romanian currency using a large set of financial data. The possible influence of specific forecasting indicators (such as Sibiu...