The identification of average causal effects of a treatment in observational studies is typically based either on the unconfoundedness assumption or on the availability of an instrument. When available, instruments may also be used to test for the unconfoundedness assumption (exogeneity of the...

In this paper we present guaranteed-content prediction intervals for time series data. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They are thus more relevant for the observed time series at hand than classical prediction intervals,...

Truncation or censoring of the response variable in a regression model is a problem in many applications, e.g. when the response is insurance claims or the durations of unemployment spells. We introduce a local polynomial re­gression estimator which can deal with such truncated or censored...