The signals approach as an early warning system has been fairly successful in detecting crises, but it has so far failed to gain popularity in the scientific community because it does not distinguish between randomly achieved in-sample fit and true predictive power. To overcome this obstacle, we...

Inference using difference-in-differences with clustered data requires care. Previous research has shown that t tests based on a cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) severely over-reject when there are few treated clusters, that different variants of the wild cluster bootstrap can...

There has been a recent interest in reporting p-values adjusted for resampling-based stepdown multiple testing procedures proposed in Romano and Wolf (2005a,b). The original papers only describe how to carry out multiple testing at a fixed significance level. Computing adjusted p-values instead...