This paper specifies and estimates a long run risks model with inflation by using the nominal term structure data in the United States from 1953 to 2006. The negative correlation between expected inflation and expected consumption growth in conjunction with the Epstein-Zin (1989) recursive...

This paper reports the results of estimating a Markov-Switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model using Bayesian methods. The broadest and best fitting MSNK model is a four-regime model allowing independent changes in the regimes governing monetary policy and the volatility of the shocks. We use the...

This paper studies the time variation of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target between 1960 and 2004 using both macro and yield curve data. I estimate a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which the inflation target follows a random-walk process. I compare estimation...

The Federal Reserve has increased communication about the future path of the federal funds target rate over time. The use of forward guidance as a policy tool has raised questions about changes in how it influences the economy.

The Federal Reserve increasingly has relied on forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate to implement monetary policy since the federal funds target rate reached its effective lower bound. The enhanced use of forward policy guidance has drawn attention to any change in its...

The concept of trend inflation is important in making accurate inflation forecasts. However, there is little consensus on how the trend in inflation should be modeled. While some studies suggest a survey-based measure of long-run inflation expectations as a good empirical proxy for trend...

around the Volcker disinflation. The subsequent decline in persistence is due to both a more aggressive monetary policy regime and less volatile shocks.

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode ("sticky...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in small open economies using the yield curve data as well as standard macro data. The DSGE model is estimated on the data of three inflation-targeting small open economies (Australia, Canada, and New...

The authors examine whether risk premiums can predict future economic growth and whether monetary policy can influence risk premiums.