The adaptive markets hypothesis posits that trading strategies evolve as traders adapt their behavior to changing circumstances. This paper studies the evolution of trading strategies for a hypothetical trader who chooses portfolios from foreign exchange (forex) technical rules in major and...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...

We investigate the information contained in foreign exchange (FX) volume using a novel dataset from the over-the-counter market. We find volume helps predict next day currency returns and is economically valuable for currency investors. Predictability implies a stronger currency return reversal...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

We analyze the impact of vaccine news announcements by leading vaccine companies on the financial and commodity markets from January to December 2020. We show that the vaccine announcements moved stock prices of the leading vaccine companies, stock markets in the U.S. and Europe (but not in Asia...

Some policymakers and scholars view cryptocurrencies as conduits of illegality and fraud, which therefore should be tightly regulated. Others warn that regulation could simply cause trading activity to cross borders into less-regulated jurisdictions—or even smother a promising new financial...

Appendix available here: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381004" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381004.We examine the design and effectiveness of the 4pm Fix, the most important benchmark in FX markets, using a unique dataset of trader identified orderbook data from an inter- dealer venue. We propose...

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the...

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the...

The aim of the paper is to verify whether the USD/EUR exchange rate market is efficient. The fundamental parity condition for testing foreign exchange market efficiency is represented by the uncovered interest-rate parity (UIP). Therefore, the UIP hypothesis verification accounts for the crucial...