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the rest of the world cannot explain the U.S. current account deficits, especially in the 1980s and the 2000s. This is … because on a GDP- weighted basis, the rest of the world actually had higher productivity growth during these periods, and … standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the U.S. to the rest of the world, and a consequent U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014222785
Relative bitcoin prices, across locations and currencies, are persistent over time, with the location component accounting for more than 50 percent of the variability. Their distribution is leptokurtic, with negative skewness for fiat pairs, and a standard deviation of 4.5%. Counter- party...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852864
In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910274
Direct government intervention in a market may induce violations of the law of one price in other, arbitrage-related markets. I show that a government pursuing a non-public, partially informative price target in a model of strategic market-order trading and segmented dealership generates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973196
exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the classic finances theory; 3) the description on the … theory; 4) the derivation of the time dependent/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 5) the …/time independent wave equation in the quantum finances theory; 6) the discussion on the developed software program with the embedded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013057
A sentiment-based model of the exchange rate is proposed to understand the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or underestimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039206
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987861
This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy “ticker”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011344170
This paper employs the post — Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (post — LASSO) to make rolling 1-month--ahead currency excess return forecasts using all other currencies' lagged forward discounts as candidate predictors. The trading strategy of buying (selling) quintile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850361
I examine the profitability of three simple foreign exchange technical trading rules (moving average, momentum, and relative strength index) before, during and after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The overall findings reveal that these technical indicators could produce statistically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851671