This paper studies the impact of political events that systematically undermined the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the euro's foreign exchange expectation bias for the period 2001 to 2005. Our findings suggest that euro foreign exchange markets were attentive to the political dispute over...

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First,...

The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow...

In this paper, we construct alternative theoretical models for exchange rates by introducing additional risk factors, based on the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. The modified flexible-price monetary model is used to characterize the long-run equilibrium of exchange rates, while the...

We analyse the workings of a simple non-linear exchange rate model in which agents hold different beliefs about the underlying model. We distinguish between chartists and fundamentalists . The non-linearities in the model originate from transactions costs and from the existence of non-linear...

In this paper, we use the largest exchange rate survey in Colombia to test for the rational expectations hypothesis, the presence of a time-varying risk premium and the accuracy of exchange rate forecasts. Our findings indicate that episodes of exchange rate appreciation preceded expectations of...

An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support) has...

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and...

Using survey data, we document that predictable exchange rate forecast errors are responsible for the uncovered-interest-parity (UIP) puzzle and its reversal at longer horizons. We develop a general-equilibrium model based on shock misperception and over-extrapolative beliefs that reconciles...