The availability of many variables with predictive power makes their selection in a regression context difficult. This study considers robust and understandable low-dimensional estimators as building blocks to improve overall predictive power by optimally combining these building blocks. Our new...

When long-term savers plan for retirement they need to know their investment prospects in terms of real income (Merton, 2014). While inflation has traditionally been considered as a complication in financial analysis and financial practise, we obtain enhanced predictability and model fit if the...

In this paper, we derive constrained optimal investment strategies for long-term savers who are interested in investing their funds in stocks, but are afraid of potentially losing, for example, their retirement income. We call this probability hedging as it is determined by the probability of...

We propose a nonparametric multiplicative bias corrected transformation estimator designed for heavy tailed data. The multiplicative correction is based on prior knowledge and has a dimension reducing effect at the same time as the original dimension of the estimation problem is retained. Adding...

Hiquest;gh, Linton and Nielsen (2006) showed that the famous result in the reward winning paper of Froot and Stein (1998) is not correct in the sense that their result does not follow from their assumptions. In this paper we show that the economic intuition behind the paper of Froot and Stein...

This paper considers Danish insurance business lines, for which the pricing methodology recently has been dramatically upgraded. A costly affair, but nevertheless the benefits greatly exceed the costs; without a proper pricing mechanism, you are simply not competitive. We show that experience...

Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods.  We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle.  It is shown that methods for forecasting...