We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...

This paper looks at the strong consistency of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in a stereotypical macroeconomic model with adaptive learning. It is a companion to Christopeit & Massmann (2017, Econometric Theory) which considers the estimator's convergence in distribution and its weak...

This paper looks at the strong consistency of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in a stereotypical macroeconomic model with adaptive learning. It is a companion to Christopeit & Massmann (2017, Econometric Theory) which considers the estimator's convergence in distribution and its weak...

This study shows that an expectations-based optimal policy rule has desirable properties in a standard macroeconomic model incorporating a cost channel for monetary disturbances and inflation rate expectations that are partly backwardlooking. Specifically, optimal monetary policy under...