Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable … should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models …-in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy-is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality …

This paper uses mortality fan charts to illustrate prospective future male mortality. These fan charts show both the … most likely path of male mortality and the bands of uncertainty surrounding that path. The fan charts are based on a model … of male mortality that is known to provide a good fit to UK mortality data. The fan charts suggest that there are clear …