This paper analyzes optimizing decisions of a monopolist under uncertainty. The aspiration model directly accounts for asymmetric risk preferences with respect to downside risk. The optimal output (price) of a risk-averse monopolist facing marginal cost uncertainty will not exceed that of his...

We propose a method for conducting inference on impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) when the impulse response is not point identified because the number of equality restrictions one can credibly impose is not sufficient for point identification and/or one imposes sign...

The rational-voter model is often criticized on the grounds that two of its central predictions (the paradox of voting and Duverger's Law) are at odds with reality. Recent theoretical advances suggest that these empirically unsound predictions might be an artifact of an (arguably unrealistic)...

Market concentration has been suggested as an enhancer of bargaining power imbalances for vertical commercial relationships. However, the empirical literature has not yet explored in which way this market concentration, as a result of -for instance- a M&A operations, could affect the...

We show that a common (identical across investors) irrationality in information processing can be enough to create nontrivial trade, using one of standard partial-equilibrium environments. We can attribute this trade to their common irrationality because we strip the investors and their...

Das ifo Institut befragt seit Anfang 2013 die an den ifo Konjunkturumfragen teilnehmenden Firmen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes nach Zukunftsszenarien für ihren Umsatz im nächsten Quartal und leitet daraus verschiedene Erwartungsgrößen ab. Eine dieser Größen – der Unterschied zwischen dem...

The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using...

Aus Sicht von Keynes hängt das Erfolgspotenzial der Marktwirtschaft nicht nur von der staatlichen Wirtschaftspolitik ab, sondern ebenso vom Wirken vorausschauender Unternehmer:innen. Diese sollen sich seiner Meinung nach dadurch auszeichnen, dass sie trotz allgegenwärtiger Unsicherheit...

The pandemic exposes policymakers to fundamental uncertainties about future economic scenarios. While policymakers have to act forcefully to mitigate the impact on the economy, these conditions call for policy strategies that are also robust to uncertainty. This article compares two concepts of...