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To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012305394
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using … business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003
We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135661
We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
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after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions are a strong decline in real exchange rate volatility and a number of changes … the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged before and … standard business cycles statistics. However, further analysis reveals thatthe euro has changed the nature of the cycle through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103008
?cant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) signi?cant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of … able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We ?nd that the euro has a strong bearing on the … domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270020
assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent … consequences jointly, and most are based on single country models. We analyze the special case of a shock restricted to the Euro …In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978764
The seven largest emerging market economies - China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey - constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, which we call EM7, are also closely integrated with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956814