The Reserve Bank is interested in expectations of the official cash rate that are held by financial market participants. In this article we discuss two formal methods by which the Bank measures these expectations; a direct survey of market surveys, and extracting OCR expectations indirectly from...

This paper uses the volatility-adjusted orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial model of the yield curve (the VAO model) from Krippner (2005), an intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987) model, to develop a multi-dimensional yield-curve-based risk...

This article establishes that most models within the popular and widely used Nelson and Siegel (1987, hereafter NS) class, with one notable exception being the Svensson (1995) variant, are effectively reduced-form representations of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model outlined in...

Yield curve models of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) class have proven themselves popular empirical tools in finance and economics, but they lack a formal theoretical justification. Hence, this article uses a multifactor version of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985a) continuous-time...

This article provides a theoretical economic foundation for the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987) class of yield curve models (which has been absent up to now). This foundation also offers a new framework for investigating and interpreting the relationships between the yield curve, output and...

This article provides theoretical foundations for the popular orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial (OLP) model of the yield curve, as originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). Intertemporal consistency is provided by deriving the volatility-adjusted OLP (VAO) model of the yield curve...

This article derives a generic, intertemporally-consistent, and arbitrage-free version of the popular class of yield curve models originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). The derived model has a theoretical foundation (conferred via the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework) that...

This article proposes the orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial (OLP) model of the yield curve, a generic linear model that is both cross-sectionally consistent (that is, it reliably fits the yield curve at a given point in time), and inter-temporally consistent (that is, the cross-sectional...

This article uses a dynamic multi-factor model of the yield curve with a rational-expectations, general-equilibrium-economy foundation to investigate the uncovered interest parity hypothesis(UIPH). The yield curve model is used to decompose the interest rate data used in the UIPH regressions...

This article develops a theoretically-consistent and easy-to-apply framework for interpreting, investigating, and monitoring the relationships between the yield curve, output, and inflation. The framework predicts that steady-state inflation plus steady-state output growth should be cointegrated...