A user friendly approach to modeling the risk process is presented. It utilizes the insurance library of the XploRe computing environment which is accompanied by on-line, hyperlinked and freely downloadable from the web manuals and e-books. The empirical analysis for Danish fire losses for the...

We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter- occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our...

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the process of price returns is a strong mean-reverting...

In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures...

In this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After analyzing factors leading to the unobservable in other financial or commodity markets price dynamics we propose a mean reverting jump diffusion model. We fit the model to data from the Nord Pool power exchange and find...

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and - as we show in the present article - modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard...

Power-law tail behavior and the summation scheme of Levy-stable (alpha- stable) distributions is the basis for their frequent use as models when fat tails above a Gaussian distribution are observed. However, recent studies suggest that financial asset returns exhibit tail exponents well above...

In this paper we first analyze the stylized facts of electricity prices, in particular, the extreme volatility and price spikes which lead to heavy-tailed distributions of price changes. Then we calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models with heavy-tailed components and show that they...

This empirical paper compares the accuracy of 12 time series methods for short-term (day-ahead) spot price forecasting in auction-type electricity markets. The methods considered include standard autoregression (AR) models, their extensions – spike preprocessed, threshold and semiparametric...