In this article we consider the efficient estimation of the tail distribution of the maximum of correlated normal random variables. We show that the currently recommended Monte Carlo estimator has difficulties in quantifying its precision, because its sample variance estimator is an inefficient...

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider...

In this paper we describe a Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) procedure for counting the number of vertex covers in general graphs. The performance of SIS depends heavily on how close the SIS proposal distribution is to a uniform one over a suitably restricted set. The proposed algorithm...

We develop a methodology for studying “large deviations type” questions. Our approach does not require that the large deviations principle holds, and is thus applicable to a large class of systems. We study a system of queues with exponential servers, which share an arrival stream. Arrivals...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <Stochastic Models</I> (2012). Volume 28(3), pages 478-502.<P> We apply the splitting method to three well-known counting problems, namely 3-SAT, random graphs with prescribed degrees, and binary contingency tables. We present an enhanced version of the splitting method...</p></stochastic>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <A href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8239378&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S026996481000032X">'Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences'</A>, 25(2), 157-69.<p>A version of the classical secretary problem is studied, in which one is interested in selecting one of the <I>b</I> best out of a group of <I>n</I> differently ranked persons who are...</i></i></p></a>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Annals of Operations Research </I> (2005). Volume 134, issue 1, pages 119-136.<P> This paper reports simulation experiments, applying the cross entropy method such as the importance sampling algorithm for efficient estimation of rare event...</p></i>

We develop a methodology for studying "large deviations type" questions. Our approach does not require that the large deviations principle holds, and is thus applicable to a larg class of systems. We study a system of queues with exponential servers, which share an arrival stream. Arrivals are...