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We propose a new model to decompose inflation swaps into genuine inflation expectations and risk premiums. We develop a … long-run, economically grounded determinants, such as the equilibrium real interest rate and the inflation target. Our … estimations deliver new insights into how macroeconomic variables affect market-based inflation expectation measures. …
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This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in … the inflation-protected securities market. We employ a large corpus of news headlines from top U.S. newspapers and market … data on the U.S. yield curve and inflation-protected securities. Our results indicate that news coverage, particularly …
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consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532587
consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288797
that the relative equity and bond yield values are, to a large extent, driven by inflation volatility. High inflation … benign inflation volatility when the bond yield became higher. Evidence for a long span of US data, and shorter German …, Japanese, and UK data, suggests the recent rise in the equity yield is accompanied by an uptick in inflation volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963922
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. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012797771