This note shows that a big stock market crash, in the absence of central bank intervention, will be followed by a major recession one to four quarters later. I establish this fact by studying the forecasting ability of three models of the unemployment rate. I show that the connection between...

We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to...

We show that the local bias in U.S. mutual fund portfolios varies significantly over time and is more pronounced at times of heightened market uncertainty, such as during financial crises. Similarly, the local bias is less pronounced in periods when market sentiment is strong. These results do...

The issues of irrational behavior of domestic private investors in the Russian stock market come from their poor awareness of the events having a material eff ect on the prices of stocks. This is a major factor that lowers the confidence of domestic private investors in risk-bearing assets and...

Abstract: Central banks in fluence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. By providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks affect financial markets' forecasts. In bad times monetary policy...

We complement a former study by Jørgensen, Moritzen and Stadtmann (2012) and estimate a reversed news model for the Danish publicly listed football club Brøndby. In addition to match outcome (as in Jørgensen et al.), news related to corporate governance and the financial status are also...

The present article deals with associations between the development of money supply measured by the monetary base M2 and the development of the Japanesee wider stock index Nikkei 225. The objective of the article is set if the money supply is significant macroeconomic factor which cause the...

There exists a considerable debate in the literature investigating how stock market upswings or downswings impact financial market regulation. The present paper contributes to this literature and investigates whether financial market regulation follows a regulative cycle: does regulation, and...

This study applies wavelet analysis to examine the relationship between the U.S. real estate and stock markets over the period 1890-2012. Wavelet analysis allows the simultaneous examination of co-movement and causality between the two markets in both the time and frequency domains. Our findings...

This study empirically examined the relationship between stock market performance and taxation in Malaysia over the period 1980 to 2008. The Gregory Hansen methodology was utilized to examine which tax collected by Malaysia’s Government most impacted stock market performance in Malaysia....