, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is … the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about their expected future development of inflation … turns out to more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a …

using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria … are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have forecasting power over inflation. Secondly, the ex post statistical … hand, our UC models for the output gap have limited forecasting power for inflation, since they underperform an arbitrary …