Similar Search Results

An output gap measure for the euro area : exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity

González-Astudillo, Manuel - In: European economic review : EER 120 (2019), pp. 1-20

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264066

Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession

Dovern, Jonas; Zuber, Christopher - 2019

Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026398

Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area

Weiske, Sebastian - 2018

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277

An output gap measure for the euro area : exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity

Manuel, González-Astudillo, - 2018

heterogeneity. On the one hand, the method uses information on real GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate for each member state … trend. The estimation of the model preferred by the data indicates that, because of negative shocks to trend output during …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932248

The econometrics of the EU fiscal governance : is the European Commission Methodology still adequate?

Fioramanti, Marco; Waldmann, Robert - In: Rivista internazionale di scienze sociali 125 (2017) 4, pp. 389-404

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011955544

The Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Output and the Phillips Curve : Bayesian Estimates for Italy

Busetti, Fabio - 2014

and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the … value of the semi-elasticity of prices to the output gap is 0.5 after 20 quarters, (ii) the inflation cycle lags GDP on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057105

ALICE : a new inflation monitoring tool

Bondt, Gabe J. de; Hahn, Elke; Zekaite, Zivile - 2018

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901421

Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle

Hawkins, Raymond J.; Nguyen, Chau N. - 2018

The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the real-rate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IS-curve behavior. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917259

Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area

Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2003

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438545

The Phillips curve and the role of monetary policy in Chile

Salazar, Leonardo - In: Journal of applied economics 22 (2019) 1, pp. 1-22

In this paper, the empirical analysis finds that the dynamics of inflation and unemployment can be described by a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157258