ensemble Phillips curves. Using real-time data for the US, Australia, New Zealand and Norway, we find that the recursive … time-varying models of the relationship between inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect …-weight strategy performs well, consistently giving well-calibrated forecast densities. The equal-weight strategy generates poorly …

detrending filters. The resulting ensemble produces well-calibrated forecast densities for US inflation in real time, in contrast …

forecast densities. To illustrate the usefulness of our approach, we calculate the probability of a negative output gap at …