We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range...

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production...