We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the startup rate. It was caused by a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely pre-determined by demographics. This channel explains roughly two-thirds of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average...

This paper investigates how demographic change affects the financial sustainability of a defined benefit pay-as-you-go social security system in an environment with collective bargaining on the labor market. Temporary equilibrium analysis shows that the contribution rate decreases, if the...

We argue that rising supply of experience not only reduces experienced workers' relative wages but also their relative labor market participation. From a theoretical model we derive predictions which we quasi-experimentally investigate, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over...

This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to demographics alone. Two channels contribute to this...

This paper investigates how demographic change affects the financial sustainability of apay-as-you-gosocialsecuritysysteminanenvironmentwithcollectivebargainingonthe labor market. Partial equilibrium analysis shows that the contribution rate or the benefit level decreases, if the old-age...

This paper surveys publications in the fields of economic history and demography in the ESR since 1969. Numbering sixty in all, they cover a broad chronological and thematic range. Some of these papers never attracted much notice, but stand as useful sources for future historians. A few have...

This paper investigates the interplay between aging of a society and its carbon dioxide emissions. The existing literature based on US data predicts lower overall emissions due to the lower emission intensity of consumption of a growing old-age share of the population. This conjecture is...

To mark the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this paper aims to assess developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) over the past three decades, and to look forward to what the next 30 years might bring. First, we measure the convergence of per capita income, wages...

Fertility in the United States rose from a low of 2.27 children for women born in 1908 to a peak of 3.21 children for women born in 1932. It dropped to a new low of 1.74 children for women born in 1949, before stabilizing for subsequent cohorts. We propose a novel explanation for this...

The middle-income trap (MIT) is a scenario of rapidly growing economies that experience sudden stops and ultimately lead to stagnation at the middle-income level. Economic growth depends on changes in the demographics of a country. Conversely, the demographic change in economic growth has both...