The large US-China trade imbalance is a common cause for concern and regularly blamed on the undervaluation of the RMB. We estimate a simple model of the trade balance and simulate the long-run effects on the trade balance of RMB revaluations in the range of 10-50%. We find that improvements in...

Regional unemployment disparities are widely observed, appear to persist through time and are often a reason for concern on the part of both regional and national governments. This paper constructs a small two-region general-equilibrium model and uses it to assess the effectiveness of...

We urge macroeconomists to abandon the 'natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment...

This paper tests the weak and semistrong forms of the efficient-markets hypothesis using data on the Australian share market in the 1980s. The tests are based on aggregate share price indexes and the semistrong efficiency tests use macroeconomic data. The weak-form tests examine the...

This study analyses the interrelationships between the share market and the macroeconomy within the framework of a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The model has just two variables - real share prices and real output - and uses a distinction between temporary and permanent shocks...

GROENEWOLD N. and HAGGER A. J. (2003) Natural-rate estimates for the Australian states: an SVAR approach, Reg. Studies 37 , 251-263. It has long been recognized that economic policy based on national economic indicators may be inappropriate when evaluated from the point of view of individual...

The study uses GARCH-M methodology to examine the effect of exchange rate shocks on the volatility of excess returns for the nineteen sectors of the Australian stock market. The data covers the period December 1979 through April 1994. The evidence suggests that news on exchange rates can improve...

This paper uses daily Shanghai A share data to evaluate the profitability of trading rules based on the predictability found in the return series. We find that the value of the trading-rule-based portfolio at the end of our sample is between 2 and 11 times that of an equity-buy-and-hold...

This paper examines how the rule of law and democratic accountability have affected Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate in the past 20 years. We find that democratic accountability has deteriorated substantially since the changeover of sovereignty in 1997, while the rule of law has remained strong and...