Introduction: the ways of our errors -- Why Big Brown was a bad bet: know your reference class -- Why Steinbrenner screamed in vain: outcome = skill + luck -- The grand ah-whoom: how little changes can make a big difference -- Bees, beavers, and beer: why the whole is greater than the parts --...

Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new...