This paper attempts a resolution of the Fisher effect puzzle in terms of estimator choice. Using both short-term and long-term interest rates for 14 OECD countries, we find ample evidence supporting the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which interest rates move oneto- one with inflation....

We apply the new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica, 2007) on thirteen financial development indices from the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure database, to test for financial system convergence across a large set of industrial and developing...

Over the past quarter century, the great wave of financial liberalization, together with advances in information-processing-technology and finance theory, created severe competitive pressures on both the asset and liability sides of bank balance sheets and, on the positive side, allowed banks to...

This study provides evidence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the British pound to US dollar exchange rate in the post-1973 period. We develop two- and three-state regime-switching models that relate the expected exchange rate return to the bubble size and to an additional explanatory...

We propose a quantile regression approach to equity premium forecasting. Robust point forecasts are generated by both fixed and time-varying weighting schemes, thus exploiting the entire distributional information associated with each predictor. Further gains are achieved by incorporating the...

This paper extends the complete subset linear regression framework to a quantile regression setting. We employ complete subset combinations of quantile forecasts in order to construct robust and accurate equity premium predictions. Our recursive algorithm that selects, in real time, the best...

In this paper we extend the concept of ultimate consumption risk analyzed by Parker and Julliard (Journal of Political Economy, 2005), and we evaluate the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model by employing as an explanatory variable consumption risk over the frequency domain. We find that at...

This paper employs a new methodology for measuring the contribution of growth and interest rate differentials to the half-life of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Our method is based on directly comparing the impulse response function of a VAR model, where the real exchange rate is...